Relationship between Terms of Trade and the GDP of the Mining Sector in Peru, 2000–2023

Abstract

This study analyses the relationship between terms of trade (ToT) and the GDP of Peru’s mining sector over the 2000–2023 period. Given the country's structural dependence on mineral exports, the investigation explores how international price fluctuations affect the sector’s performance. Using a quantitative, non-experimental and ex post facto design, the analysis applies Spearman’s correlation coefficient. Results reveal a moderate positive correlation (ρ = 0.530; p = 0.008) between ToT and mining GDP, indicating that variations in international trade prices significantly influence the sector’s economic output. The findings also highlight cyclical dynamics in export and import price indices, and the sensitivity of mineral production and export values to external shocks, such as the 2008 global crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The study advocates for export diversification, risk mitigation strategies, and the adoption of artificial intelligence to forecast price volatility and enhance macroeconomic resilience.