Seasonal analysis of Peruvian avocado exports as a logistics efficiency strategy

Abstract

Abstract– This study aimed to describe and characterize the monthly seasonality of Peruvian avocado exports using FOB value, net weight, and monthly unit value (FOB/weight), and to identify intra-annual and year-on-year variations over 2015–2025. A quantitative, descriptive, non-experimental, and longitudinal design was applied, based on customs records aggregated monthly for HS code 0804400000. The methodology combined stacked monthly seasonal profiles by year, concentration measures derived from monthly shares of annual totals, and a seasonal decomposition to separate trend, seasonal, and irregular components. Additionally, the avocado export window was benchmarked against other major fresh exports (grapes, mango, asparagus, and blueberries) through standardized monthly participation to detect recurrent overlaps. Results showed sustained expansion, with FOB increasing from USD 306 million to USD 1.421 billion and volumes rising from 176 thousand to 804 thousand tons, while unit values fluctuated, indicating that growth was primarily quantity-driven rather than price-led. A persistent seasonal pattern was confirmed, with structural concentration in May–August and peaks typically occurring between May and July. The comparative analysis revealed recurring overlaps with other campaigns, increasing simultaneous demand for cold-chain capacity, inspections, transport, and port services. The study concluded that seasonality constituted a strategic variable for logistics efficiency and risk reduction. Recommendations included institutionalizing an evidence-based monthly operating calendar, securing early container and cold-chain bookings, coordinating stakeholders to stagger deliveries within peak months, diversifying exit routes where feasible, and strengthening monthly analytics for near-real-time operational monitoring.