Patent-Papers Matrix, S-Curves, and Hype Cycle Applied to Prototypes in the Agro-Industrial Chain of Cocoa

Abstract

Agro-industrial sectors must identify technologies and innovations through technology management approaches that enhance efficiency, competitiveness, and the quality of life of agricultural producers, associations, and other stakeholders. This study aims to identify and prioritize technologies and innovations related to the cocoa agro-industrial chain in support of technology transfer processes. To this end, technology management methods were applied to assess the viability of emerging prototypes in this chain by combining S-curves, the Patent-Papers Matrix, and the Hype Cycle. The methodological approach included the definition of critical watch factors (CWFs), the construction of five Scopus search equations for the chain, time-series analysis, and nonlinear regression modeling in Sigmaplot. Emerging components were identified through the Hype Cycle from the perspective of associations. The S-curve analysis yielded inflection points between 2019 and 2035, revealing different stages of technological maturity. The cocoa chain exhibited an overall maturity stage, with most equations reaching patent inflection points between 2019 and 2020; C5 (cadmium in cocoa) stood out because scientific research is projected to continue expanding through 2034. The Patent-Papers Matrix placed the technologies in the lower-left quadrant, highlighting opportunities for incremental and process innovation, and in the lower-right quadrant, where opportunities emerge for the commercialization and scaling of patented technologies, the monitoring of emerging science, and collaborative applied research with industry to strengthen existing patents and promote academia-industry collaboration