FORESIGHT STUDY TO 2035 IN THE AGROINDUSTRIAL SECTORS OF PLANTAIN, DAIRY, SPECIAL COFFEES, COLD CLIMATE FRUIT, CITRUS AND LEATHER

Abstract

Sectorial prospective studies have become valuable tools for decision-making by actors in Science, Technology and Innovation Systems, especially when future scenarios are aligned with methods and techniques that allow integrating priority technologies and innovations as input. of routes for future images. This study aimed to generate scenarios for 2035 as well as prioritize new topics, technologies and innovations based on the approach of convergent technologies Nano, Bio, Info, Cogno in the agroindustrial chains of plantain, dairy, specialty coffee, cold climate fruit trees, citrus and leather, for this purpose methods such as Structural Analysis - MICMAC, MACTOR, SMICPROBexpert and Delphi were used in two rounds through techniques and tools such as cross impact matrices, transposed matrices, probabilities, Bayes theorem, quadratic minimization, mode, frequency manners and consensus percentages. Among the most important results, the analysis of more than 225 variables in the cross-impact matrices in the 6 sectors stands out, identification of 59 drivers or key variables in 29 groupers, 17 future objectives, 29 hypotheses and 6 betting scenarios, as well as such as the participation of 172 experts from countries such as the United States, Chile, Uruguay, Peru, Spain, Australia and Colombia, who prioritized 64 technologies and innovations in plantain, 92 in dairy products, 58 in specialty coffees, 31 in cold climate fruit trees, 71 in citrus fruits and 44 in the leather sector. As conclusions, the opportunity to generate strategies and projects in the coming years in Quindío and regions of other countries with similar characteristics is highlighted, in order to reach the betting scenario of each sector, an input for these bets is to carry out specific projects. supported by Surveillance and Intelligence studies in the priority technologies and innovations in the 6 Delphi, which contemplate complementary aspects in terms of market, competitive and supplier surveillance, in addition, in terms of prioritized convergent Technologies, it is recommended to hold workshops, training sessions ideation and co-creation that allows applying the concepts of Nano, Bio, Info, Cogno and Green convergence in order to generate incremental, radical and regenerative innovations in the six chains.