Dynamics of Peruvian banana exports analyzed from the decomposition of their growth into intensive and extensive margins

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to characterize the dynamics of Peruvian banana exports and to decompose their growth into intensive and extensive margins in order to determine whether aggregate changes were driven by deepening existing flows or by the creation and recomposition of trade links. A quantitative, descriptive, non-experimental design was applied using customs records processed through AZATRADE–SUNAT for 2015–2025, focusing on HS 0803901100 (fresh bananas, Cavendish Valery). The results indicated a relative peak in export value in 2018 followed by a subsequent contraction, alongside a structural decline in exported volumes from 2019 onward, despite a recovery in unit FOB prices during 2023–2025. In addition, the number of exporting firms and destination markets decreased, suggesting rising concentration and weaker geographic diversification. The growth decomposition showed that the net downturn was mainly explained by a strongly negative intensive margin linked to incumbent underperformance and firm exit, whereas the extensive margin remained positive due to firm entry and market openings but did not fully offset the losses; during 2023–2025, the partial recovery was predominantly extensive. It was concluded that aggregate export figures masked vulnerabilities in continuity and depth of core flows. Accordingly, it was recommended to strengthen productive, logistical, and commercial capabilities to rebuild the intensive margin, promote market diversification with permanence and scaling, and reinforce sanitary and climate risk management to sustain market access.