Design and Validation of a Techno-Economic-Regulatory Model to Optimize the Profitability of Bifacial Solar Farms in Southern Peru.

Resumen

This research develops and applies a techno-economic-regulatory (TER) model to evaluate and optimize the profitability (NPV and IRR) of a Clemesí-type bifacial solar power plant in Moquegua, Peru. The approach integrates into a single calculation structure: (i) technical variables (irradiance, albedo, temperature, and bifacial gain), (ii) economic-financial variables (CAPEX, OPEX, cash flows, NPV, IRR, and LCOE), and (iii) regulatory variables (RER bonus and annual transmission tariff, in addition to assumptions regarding operational recognition/certification). The study follows an applied modeling and simulation design with an instrumental case, using operational information from the 2024–2025 period to parameterize and verify the consistency of the model. The technical module takes as a reference an annual generation of 282 GWh/year (~2452 kWh/kWp) and a base albedo of 0.25 associated with a reported bifacial gain of 11.4%, incorporating the thermal effect. This energy feeds into the economic-regulatory module, parameterized with a price of $0.05/kWh, CAPEX of $81.00 million, OPEX of $1.61 million/year, transmission of $2.07 million/year, RER bonus of 10%, discount rate of 11%, and a 25-year horizon. With these assumptions, the base case establishes a consistent reference of NPV ≈ $18.63 million, IRR ≈ 14.06%, and LCOE ≈ $0.0398/kWh. Two fronts are evaluated: (1) optimization by installation height (0.5–2.5 m), where NPV and IRR improve within the analyzed range; and (2) regulatory/technical-regulatory scenarios (recognition of back-end gains, transmission reduction, and revenue increase), showing that the levers associated with revenue shift NPV/IRR more than proportional reductions in transmission costs under the same discount and horizon.