Economic Impact of the Suspension of Operations in Oil Blocks 8 and 192 in the Loreto Region, Peru (2020-2023)

Resumen

This study analyzes the economic impact of the suspension of oil blocks 8 and 192 in the Loreto region, Peru, during the period 2020-2023. It is estimated that this interruption resulted in a loss of approximately 623.58 million soles in foregone canon and overcanon revenues, which are essential for financing public investment projects in key sectors such as health, education, and infrastructure. This loss was quantified using the Arps decline curve model and the application of Law No. 21678, as amended by Laws No. 23538, No. 24300, and No. 26385. The results indicate that the hydrocarbons sector is a fundamental pillar of the regional economy, significantly contributing to Loreto's GDP and employment generation. However, instability in oil exploitation was influenced by various factors, including social conflicts, environmental issues, government decisions, and, in particular, the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These elements exacerbated the region's economic crisis, limiting the availability of public resources and increasing poverty levels. It is concluded that the suspension of oil operations had a direct negative impact on Loreto's socio-economic development by restricting the region's capacity to respond to emergencies and undermining the sustainability of regional growth.