Government Effectiveness, Corruption, GDP, and Public Expenditure: A Panel Analysis of Life Expectancy in Guatemala, Honduras and Salvador

Abstract

Abstract— The Northern Triangle of Central America, comprising Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, shares common borders and serves as a bridge connecting North America with the South. This region offers a significant setting for studying this relationship, combining growth trends, policies, and public and educational investment efforts; they create an ideal environment for conducting research to understand well-being as a result of the policies implemented in each country. Panel data models are consistent with recent methodological literature that recommends applications with robust corrections when working with data featuring moderate variations and institutional indicators. Within this context, the objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of factors such as government effectiveness, control of corruption, income, public spending, and tertiary enrollment rates on life expectancy—as a proxy for well-being—during the period 2002-2023. Among the main findings, it is highlighted that an increase in income has a positive effect on longevity. However, the increase in the tertiary enrollment rate does not improve this variable. This inconsistency challenges the linearity of traditional studies that suggest a direct relationship between life expectancy, education, and income. Most importantly: as long as government effectiveness does not follow parameters of corruption control or efficient management of public investment, results in life expectancy remain insignificant; meager increases will persist without substantial outcomes that provide the population with opportunities for a long and dignified life.