Analysis of government stability through a multiple linear regression model with a focus on a case study in Latin America

Resumen

Abstract- The objective of this research was to identify the socioeconomic variables that have the greatest impact on government stability and develop a mathematical model that allows describing and predicting their behavior in Latin American countries, with a particular focus on Honduras and other selected countries. The research highlights the importance of making Honduran government stability visible, highlighting that, compared to other countries such as Brazil, data from Honduras show lower precision in the model due to variability in key factors, such as corruption, law and order or foreign investment. This suggests that low or inconsistent indices of certain indicators affect the predictive capacity of the model for the country. The sample data comes from reliable sources such as the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) and the WITS (World Integrated Trade Solution) platform, and the statistical analysis demonstrated the high effectiveness of the model in several regions. However, Honduras presented the lowest results in terms of precision, which shows the need to strengthen its socioeconomic indicators to improve its government stability. This study provides a starting point for government public policies focused on improving the critical factors that influence government stability, promoting more sustainable and stable development in a region.