Stochastic Analysis of the Flow of the Vilcanota River in the Machupicchu Hydroelectric Power Plant using ARIMA models 2023

Abstract

Abstract– The constant demand for energy consumption suggests that its supply be duly attended to for the economic and social development of the country. Since fossil fuels generate a large amount of carbon emissions and are also being depleted; The change towards renewable energies is essential. However, the creation and commissioning of clean energy plants is a crucial challenge because it is difficult to obtain natural resources for continuous energy generation. Consequently, a forecast model is an important tool to anticipate energy generation, consumption and reserve. This document presents a flow forecasting model for hydroelectric energy production, using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The data involved was obtained from the Machupicchu Hydroelectric Power Plant. Although the energy capacity of the hydroelectric plant is greatly affected by environmental variability, having a forecast model and a long-term plan that will greatly benefit the production of renewable energy to meet the continuous increase in the demand.