Prescriptive Markov Model for SMEs in Huacho: Strengthening Competitive Advantage Sales management and innovation in the face of Chancay Megaport

Abstract

This study aims to analyze how sales management and innovation influence the competitive advantage of MSMEs in Huacho, especially in light of the impact of the Chancay Megaport. Introduction: Micro and small enterprises face a constantly changing competitive environment, where innovation and effective sales management are essential for their sustainability and growth. Methods: A quantitative, non-experimental, cross-sectional study was conducted with 260 MSMEs in the service sector. Validated surveys were applied (Cronbach's Alpha = 0.878, McDonald's Omega = 0.880) and statistical tests such as Friedman (p = 0.000), Logit multiple regression, and Spearman's score were used. Results: Sales management and innovation were found to significantly impact competitive advantage, with sales activities being the most influential factor (b = 0.489). The Friedman test revealed significant differences between the factors analyzed, while the collinearity analysis showed a positive correlation between both variables. The Markov Chain model projected a decrease in the financial stability of SMEs, increasing the probability of competitive disadvantage from 0.38% to 19.99% in 24 months. Discussion: These findings show the need to strengthen innovation and sales strategies to avoid competitiveness losses. It is concluded that the combination of efficient management and innovation in products and processes improves business sustainability and allows strategic decisions based on predictive models to strengthen the stability and growth of SMEs.