Markovian Prospective Analysis: Financial Health as an effect of Human Resources and Production Operation, SMEs in Commerce, Huacho-Peru

Abstract

The objective of the study was to establish to what extent the Markovian prospective analysis on Financial Health is influenced by Human Resources and Production-Operation in Commerce MSMEs in Huacho, Peru. The study is non-experimental and prospective, using software such as POM QM and Crystall Ball. The sample was 399 commercial MSMEs, extracted from RELAYN, covering 15 items. The results showed that the instrument was highly reliable Cronbach's α = 0.962, McDonald's Ω = 0.962. The normality test indicated a non-normal distribution p-value = 0.010 justifying the use of non-parametric tests. The Friedman test confirmed significant differences between the dimensions p-value = 0.000 in the Multiple Regression, the equation obtained was: Finance = 5.627 + 1.343 (LoyalTeam) − 0.193 (CapableTeam) + 0.017 (GoodTreatment) − 0.296 (Productivity) + 0.833 (Well-being) + 0.969 (Quality) − 0.228 (Just in Time) + 0.089 (Delivery) + 0.225 (Inventories) + 0.979 (Costs). The Spearman Correlation highlighted that Delivery Time (r = 0.481), Product Quality (r = 0.499) and Interpersonal Relationship (r = 0.467) significantly impact Financial Health. Markov analysis showed that although financial stability improved from 13.03% to 31%, it remains at risk of deterioration, as the probability of falling into critical economics increases. Monte Carlo simulation confirmed that March 2025 is the critical point with 77.8% impact. In conclusion, the general hypothesis is validated, the prospective Markovian analysis on the Financial Health of SMEs in Huacho, Peru, is significantly influenced by Human Resources and Production-Operation, highlighting the need for early strategies to stabilize the economy of SMEs.