Estimation of glacial retreat of Nevado Artesonraju in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, using CMIP5 climate scenarios

Abstract

The Artesonraju glacier, located in the Cordillera Blanca of the Central Andes, is a key indicator of climate change and plays a crucial role in water supply in glacial basins. This research seeks to estimate the future retreat of Artesonraju in response to climate change. For this purpose, geospatial analysis tools (ArcMap, Google Earth Engine, USGS Earth Explorer, Python) and Landsat 5 and 7 (1986-2012) and Landsat 8 and 9 (2013-2023) satellite image data were used. The main indicator to measure retreat is the Glacial Equilibrium Line (ELA). To project the future evolution of ELA, a multiple linear regression model was used, considering the current temperature of the planet and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model presented a significant coefficient (R² = 0.76), indicating a moderate correlation between the variables ELA, year and precipitation. The results suggest that ELA could reach 5301 m.a.s.l. in RCP 4.5 and 5310 m.a.s.l. in RCP8.5, which would imply the disappearance of the glacier by 2073 and 2074, respectively.