Modelling the distribution of Vasconcellea candicans for conservation purposes in the face of environmental change drivers in Lima, Peru

Abstract

Drivers of environmental change are putting the biodiversity of the coastal hills of Lima, Peru, at risk, with significant impacts on Vasconcellea candicans, an endemic and critically endangered tree species. This study modeled its current distribution to identify priority conservation areas and propose strategies to address threats such as urban expansion and climate change occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and environmental variables from WorldClim, The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and SoilGrids were used, eliminating collinearity using the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). Through the MaxEnt model, validated with an average AUC of 0.989, it was determined that 1.60% of the territory of Lima (556.55 km²) presents high suitability for the species. At the same time, the analysis of Landsat images (1990-2023) showed accelerated urban growth, restricting the available habitat. Urban expansion, land use change and unregulated tourism emerge as the main threats, compromising a species that plays an essential ecological role by capturing atmospheric water and sustaining biodiversity, in addition to having a high cultural and historical value. These results highlight the importance of adopting conservation measures based on scientific evidence, aimed at mitigating human and climatic pressures, ensuring the preservation of Vasconcellea candicans and the essential ecosystem services that maintain environmental balance and benefit local communities.