Temporal Variation Analysis of Water Resources in the Chol-Chol River Watershed, Chile under Climate Change Scenarios, 2025–2060

Resumen

This study analyzes the temporal variation of water resources in the Chol-Chol River basin, located in the Araucanía Region of Chile, under climate change scenarios for the period 2025-2060, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Hydrological processes were simulated under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which represents a future scenario with high greenhouse gas emissions. The results indicate a generalized decrease in water availability, with prolonged periods of drought interspersed with intense rainfall events. Areas vulnerable to drought (Lumaco and Purén) and flooding (Chol-Chol, Galvarino, and Traiguén) were identified. These findings have significant implications for water management, agriculture, and human supply in the region.