Daily Energy Production Variance Analysis and Statistical Distribution Modeling for Small-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Systems

Resumen

This research presents a detailed statistical analysis of daily energy production variance for the Carhuaquero Photovoltaic Solar Plant, a 565.25 kW small-scale solar installation operated by KONDU SAC in Peru. Using a complete annual dataset spanning from May 17, 2024, to May 16, 2025, this study examines the temporal variability and statistical distribution characteristics of photovoltaic energy generation. The analysis encompasses 365 consecutive daily observations, revealing significant insights into production patterns and operational efficiency metrics. Statistical modeling techniques were applied to characterize the probability distributions governing daily energy output, with particular emphasis on variance analysis and distribution fitting methodologies. The results demonstrate that daily energy production exhibits considerable variability, with values ranging from 2.5 to 6.1 MWh per day, indicating a coefficient of variation exceeding 25%. Seasonal patterns were identified through monthly aggregation analysis, showing distinct performance variations correlated with meteorological conditions typical of the Andean region. Distribution modeling revealed that energy production follows a near-normal distribution with slight positive skewness during peak production periods. The findings contribute to enhanced understanding of small-scale photovoltaic system performance characteristics and provide valuable insights for energy forecasting models and grid integration strategies. These results support improved operational planning and maintenance scheduling for similar solar installations in comparable geographical and climatic conditions.