Influence of climate change on the run-off river hydroelectric potential in the middle-high basin of the river Jequetepeque, Peru

Resumen

This study evaluates the impact of climate change on run-of-river hydropower potential in the middle–upper Jequetepeque River basin, Peru. Climate projections from the IPSL-CM6A-LR model under the high-emission scenario SSP5–8.5 (CMIP6) were used to analyze water availability for the periods 2026–2065 and 2066–2100. The methodology integrated Google Earth Engine for climate data management, the SCS-CN hydrological model (calibrated with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.9953), and GIS tools to segment the river network into reaches of 500, 1000, and 1500 meters. The results project an intensification of the hydrological cycle toward the end of the century, with increased flows during high-flow months and more pronounced low-flow periods. A maximum theoretical potential of up to 33.15 MW was identified in the San Miguel sub-basin (Llapa River) for the period 2066–2100 using 1500 m reaches. The study concludes that the basin exhibits high technical suitability for the development of micro- and mini-hydropower plants, which represent a sustainable and resilient alternative for the regional energy transition under future climate stress.