Multitemporal analysis of the relationship between urban green infrastructure and the urban heat island in Lince, Lima–Peru (2015–2025)

Resumen

This study analyzes the relationship between green infrastructure and the moderation of the surface urban heat island effect in the district of Lince (Lima) through a multitemporal analysis covering the period 2015–2025, based on Landsat 8 and 9 satellite imagery selected annually according to seasonality and radiometric quality criteria, excluding years without suitable image availability. Despite the limited availability of green areas in the district (3.04 m2 per inhabitant), a value below commonly cited international recommendations, vegetation associated with urban green infrastructure exhibits a consistent thermal regulatory effect. The processing of bands 4, 5, and 10 enabled the estimation of NDVI, LST (land surface temperature), and UHI (urban heat island intensity) for 5,601 urban units. NDVI values were generally low in the most recent years, ranging from −0.01 (2021, 2023, and 2024) to 0.36 (2018 and 2023), indicating low vegetation cover with localized increases in greenery. LST values ranged from 15.41 °C to 45.40 °C. In addition, critical UHI events of up to +5.48 were identified, while areas with higher vegetation cover exhibited negative thermal anomalies of up to −5.00, demonstrating the mitigating effect of urban green infrastructure on surface heat accumulation. Across the evaluated years, NDVI–LST and NDVI–UHI relationships showed negative and statistically significant correlations (r between −0.595 and −0.480; p < 0.001), indicating that even limited areas of urban green infrastructure are associated with reduced surface heat accumulation in a densely urbanized district such as Lince.