Caracterización sistémica de factores, riesgos y actores en la logística humanitaria en zonas vulnerables del Caribe colombiano: caso La Guajira

Abstract

Humanitarian response in highly vulnerable territories of the Colombian Caribbean faces structural constraints that limit the effectiveness of logistics operations, particularly in the department of La Guajira. This study provides a systemic characterization of the factors, risks, and actors influencing humanitarian logistics performance and proposes a system dynamics model to explain recurrent operational patterns under uncertainty. A mixed-method approach was applied, combining documentary and territorial analysis based on institutional reports and official statistics with system dynamics tools, including causal loop and stock–flow diagrams. The results reveal that inter-institutional coordination, information traceability, and last-mile governance are key determinants of logistics performance, while territorial dispersion, limited road accessibility, and climate seasonality increase response times and operational costs. A reinforcing feedback loop is identified: higher social vulnerability increases humanitarian demand, which extends response times and further deepens vulnerability. The proposed systemic model identifies leverage points such as minimum shared data standards, prepositioning strategies, seasonal routing, and the use of hubs and micro-hubs. These findings provide a technical basis for prioritizing interventions and for developing digital decision-support tools to improve humanitarian logistics management in highly constrained environments such as La Guajira.