"Pedagogical Application of Bayes' Theorem for HPV Risk Factor Identification in Engineering"

Abstract

Objective: To determine the prevalence and associated factors of human papillomavirus (HPV) presence by applying Bayes' Theorem as a statistical inference tool, demonstrating its pedagogical value in engineering education. Materials and methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study conducted in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua. A validated 17-question self-administered survey was applied to 42 female patients (21-65 years), followed by colposcopy and biopsy. Bayesian analysis estimated posterior probabilities of HPV according to demographic, anthropometric, gynecologicalobstetric, and behavioral characteristics. Probability diagrams were constructed and Bayes' Theorem was applied to calculate conditional probabilities. Results: Of 42 patients, 28 (67%) were HPV-negative and 14 (33%) HPV-positive. Predominant risk factors: age 21-29 years (35%), blood type O+ (71%), weight 58-70 kg (57%), menarche at 12-13 years (64%), sexual debut at 19-22 years (50%), 1-4 sexual partners (64%), red meat consumption 2-3 days/week (71%). Conclusions: Bayes' Theorem constitutes an effective tool for estimating causal probabilities in medical diagnosis, identifying significant risk factors associated with HPV. It demonstrates pedagogical value in biomedical engineering, strengthening probabilistic reasoning and clinical decision-making skills, fundamental for multidisciplinary collaboration in healthcare teams.