Calculation of the Cost of Unsupplied Electricity in the Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Sectors of Honduras for the years 2021-2023

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to analyze and calculate the Cost of Energy Not Supplied (CENS) in Honduras for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, with the aim of quantifying the economic losses resulting from power outages. The study employed the calculation methodology established by the Regional Electricity Interconnection Commission (CRIE) in the Regional Electricity Market Regulation, which is based on indirect methods using macroeconomic data and historical records corresponding to the study’s baseline years. The analysis estimated the CENS in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, distinguishing between costs associated with short- and long-duration outages and considering the specific characteristics of each consumption sector. The results revealed that the commercial and industrial sectors reported the highest CENS costs, primarily due to their high dependency on productive processes. In the residential sector, outages directly impacted on the quality of life and well-being of households. Overall, the cost of outages has shown an upward trend, reflecting the increasing vulnerability of the national electrical system. This research highlights the urgent need to prioritize investments in electrical infrastructure and design more effective regulatory policies to reduce economic losses and improve the reliability of the electricity supply.