Simulation of the impact of climate variability and change on potato production in the Azacualpa village, Francisco Morazán, Honduras

Abstract

In recent years, climate change has emerged as one of the main threats to food security, especially in vulnerable regions like Honduras. There, the agricultural sector faces increasing negative impacts due to changing climatic conditions. For this reason, the present study evaluated the impact of climate variability and climate change on potato production in Azacualpa, a village located in Francisco Morazán department. To achieve this goal, climate data from local meteorological stations (Azacualpa and the Uyuca Biological Reserve), reanalysis products (ERA5-Land and (ERA5-Ag), and climate projections for the year 2050 under the RCP 6.0 scenario Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used. The simulation was conducted using the AquaCrop® agricultural model. Te results showed that climate variability, particularly events associated with the ENSO phenomenon affect potato yield under rainfed conditions. During the dry season, yields were below 15 t/ha in the Niño, Niña and Neutral years due to limited water availability. Likewise, projections for 2050 indicated a slight decrease in yield, due to sustained temperature increases and their negative effect on crop development. In conclusion, the study demonstrates climate variability and climate change both negatively affect potato production in Azacualpa. However, the strategic use of irrigation and the analysis of future scenarios can help identify adaptation measures that enhance the resilience of the agricultural system under changing climate conditions.