Temporal Variation Analysis of Water Resources in the Chol-Chol River Watershed, Chile under Climate Change Scenarios, 2025–2060

Authors

  • Wilmer Barreto Cordero Universidad Catolica de Temuco, Chile
  • Victor Icarte Universidad Catolica de Temuco, Chile
  • Ramon Sáez Universidad Catolica de Temuco, Chile
  • Ricado Picon Universidad Catolica de Temuco, Chile
  • Jesus Torres-Hoyer Universidad Catolica de Temuco, Chile
  • Roberto Torres-Hoyer Universidad Catolica de Temuco, Chile

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18687/LACCEI2026.1.1.2741

Keywords:

Climate change, watershed, water availability, drought, flooding.

Abstract

This study analyzes the temporal variation of water resources in the Chol-Chol River basin, located in the Araucanía Region of Chile, under climate change scenarios for the period 2025-2060, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Hydrological processes were simulated under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which represents a future scenario with high greenhouse gas emissions. The results indicate a generalized decrease in water availability, with prolonged periods of drought interspersed with intense rainfall events. Areas vulnerable to drought (Lumaco and Purén) and flooding (Chol-Chol, Galvarino, and Traiguén) were identified. These findings have significant implications for water management, agriculture, and human supply in the region.

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Published

2026-07-27

License

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

LACCEI retains copyright of all published articles under the terms of its copyright transfer agreement. As the copyright holder, LACCEI distributes the articles to the public under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0).

How to Cite

Barreto Cordero, W., Icarte, V., Sáez, R., Picon, R., Torres-Hoyer, J., & Torres-Hoyer, R. (2026). Temporal Variation Analysis of Water Resources in the Chol-Chol River Watershed, Chile under Climate Change Scenarios, 2025–2060. LACCEI, 1(14). https://doi.org/10.18687/LACCEI2026.1.1.2741