Generation Gap Analysis in Commercial Wind Projects: Technical-Operational Decomposition Framework

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive technical– operational decomposition framework for analyzing generation gaps in commercial wind energy projects, focusing on Peru’s pioneering INKA Wind Complex. The research examines daily generation data from May 2024 to April 2025 for two complementary wind farms: Talara (30MW) and Cupisnique (80 MW), representing the first large-scale wind energy installations in Peru. Our methodology integrates capacity factor analysis, seasonal performance decomposition, and operational variability assessment to identify performance gaps and optimization opportunities. Results reveal significant performance disparities between the two facilities, with Cupisnique achieving an exceptional 82.8%annual capacity factor compared to Talara’s 29.3 %. The combined complex generates 650 082MWh annually with a 65.8% capacity factor, exceeding initial projections by 46.4 %. Seasonal analysis demonstrates pronounced variations, with peak performance during August–September (83.5% combined capacity factor) and minimum efficiency in February (45.0 %). The technical–operational decomposition reveals that site-specific wind resources account for 64% of performance variance, while operational factors contribute 36 %. High-performance periods (>150% average generation) occur 23.5% of days for Cupisnique but only 4.7% for Talara, indicating substantial resource optimization potential. This framework provides actionable insights for wind farm operators, demonstrating how systematic performance decomposition can identify generation gaps and inform strategic decisions for capacity expansion and operational enhancement in emerging renewable energy markets.