Analysis of losses due to irregular collection and consumption of electricity and proposal of a strategic improvement plan

Abstract

The Ecuadorian electricity sector, managed by public entities such as the National Electricity Corporation (CNEL EP), faces significant economic losses stemming from accumulated delinquency and irregular consumption, particularly in the province of Los Ríos. This study analyzes operational data from 155,594 users for the period January-December 2025, revealing that users with conventional meters account for 73.85% of overdue accounts (USD 39.65 million) and 64.53% of total consumption, demonstrating a high vulnerability in consumption control and collection. Using a sequential explanatory mixed-methods approach, quantitative analysis (descriptive statistics and anomaly detection) is combined with qualitative interpretation to diagnose the technical and administrative causes of non-technical losses. The results highlight the effectiveness of advanced systems (telemetry and AMI) in reducing delinquency and irregular consumption. A comprehensive strategic plan is proposed, with five key areas: migration to smart metering, billing optimization, segmented collections, data-driven territorial management, and organizational strengthening. Implementation aims to reduce financial losses, improve financial sustainability, and enhance operational efficiency at CNEL EP – Los Ríos.