RELATIONSHIP OF EL NIÑO COSTERO AND NATURAL HAZARDS WITH INCIDENCE OF DENGUE AND CHOLERA IN LURIGANCHO - PERU, PERIOD 1997-2024.

Abstract

The urban expansion of metropolitan Lima has led to the settlement of poor populations in the premontane zones and Andean desert foothills of its eastern periphery, in addition to the appearance of formal and informal solid waste disposal sites, where the occasional rains generated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation trigger debris flows, landslides, river overflows and floods, in addition to the appearance of infectious and contagious diseases in their inhabitants, so it is necessary know the climatic and environmental conditions that cause these outbreaks, for a better management of these cases. To this end, the relationship between climate variability, natural hazards and the increase in cases of cholera and dengue in the district of Lurigancho between 1997 and 2024 was analyzed. For this purpose, data from hydrometeorological stations, ENSO indices, natural hazard reports and disease incidence records were systematized. As result, a strong relationship was found between rainfall in the Ñaña zone and the incidence of disease, which may be related to the inadequate disposal of solid waste and the precarious conditions in which many of its inhabitants live, aggravated by the lack of governmental management of the territory, hazard prevention and health care. In conclusion, the incidence of arboviral diseases in this case is not significantly correlated with the occurrence of hazards, but rather with favorable atmospheric conditions of higher minimum temperatures and rainfall, such as those generated by an ENSO event, combined with deficiencies in final disposal of solid waste and lack of basic services for the population.